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Oil prices sink as expectations for an imminent US-Iran deal increase. What's next?
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil sold off hard yesterday following reports that Pakistan's Chief of Army, Asim Munir, was carrying a proposal to Iranian leaders that included the removal of the US naval blockade and gradual lift of sanctions under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.Even though it wasn’t the first
Switzerland August UBS investor sentiment +12.1 vs +10.0 prior
Prior was +10.0Swiss investor confidence strengthened again in August, with the UBS Investor Sentiment Index rising to +12.1 from +10.0 in July, signalling growing optimism about the outlook for the Swiss economy and financial markets. This marks the second consecutive month in positive territory following a sharp reco
Nasdaq Analysis: Two Critical Levels to Watch Around Nvidia Earnings
Nasdaq Futures Await Nvidia Earnings: 29,310 and 29,200 Define the Next MoveNasdaq futures are trading inside a narrow decision zone ahead of Nvidia's earnings. A sustained move above 29,310 would activate the bullish scenario and a possible bull flag breakout. A sustained break below 29,200 would strengthen the bearis
FX option expiries for 26 August 10am New York cut
EUR/USD1.1750 (EUR 1.31 bn)1.1700 (EUR 1.01 bn)1.1675 (EUR 1.12 bn)USD/JPY160.00 (US$ 782.68 mn)159.00 (US$ 996.56 mn)GBP/USD1.3625 (GBP 600.03 mn)AUD/USD0.7220 (AUD 360.38 mn)0.7160 (AUD 487.77 mn)EUR/GBP0.8600 (EUR 782.01 mn)0.8500 (EUR 490.33 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to
Nvidia Earnings Tonight: NVDA Levels and Trade Plan
Nvidia Earnings Tonight: What NVDA Must Deliver and How Traders May Approach the ReactionNvidia reports its fiscal second-quarter FY2027 results after the market closes today. Wall Street expects another exceptional growth quarter, but the harder test is whether revenue, guidance, margins and AI-demand commentary can c
ECB's Schnabel says the central bank must act early to prevent second-round effects
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated the need to act early to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, warning that second-round effects remain a key risk as price pressures persist across the Eurozone.She noted that inflation is likely to remain above the ECB’s 2% target for an extended period, whi
What are the main events for today?
EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Swiss economic sentiment index and UK CBI distributive trades. The data won't change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted.The market is currently focused
investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Oil down, AUD 3 month high
ICYMI: US begins returning staff to Middle East embassies after Iran war evacuationsHawkish board member Tamura to represent BOJ at Jackson Hole instead of UedaAsian shares edge higher as markets await Nvidia earnings, US inflation dataGold holds near three month high as markets await US inflation dataAUD higher, Austr
ICYMI: US begins returning staff to Middle East embassies after Iran war evacuations
The gradual return of diplomatic staff is a meaningful, if incremental, signal that Washington now assesses near term escalation risk with Iran as lower, even though the underlying conflict remains formally unresolved, with the naval blockade of Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz both still in place. This sits al
Hawkish board member Tamura to represent BOJ at Jackson Hole instead of Ueda
Ueda's decision to skip Jackson Hole removes one of the more direct opportunities for the BOJ governor to signal policy intent on the world stage this week, shifting attention instead to whether he attends the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, running 31 August to 1
Asian shares edge higher as markets await Nvidia earnings, US inflation data
The gains across both Japanese and Korean equities reflect a broadly risk-on tone heading into what is genuinely one of the more consequential 24 hour stretches for global markets this quarter, spanning Nvidia's results, the US PCE print, and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. A soft PCE reading is being
Gold holds near three month high as markets await US inflation data
Gold's ability to hold its recent gains without giving much back suggests the market is comfortable with its current positioning ahead of today's inflation print, rather than nervously unwinding into the event. The setup favours further upside if the PCE data comes in soft and Warsh strikes a balanced or dovish tone at
AUD higher, Australian CPI beats forecasts as core inflation surprises to the upside
The scale of the beat, both on headline and on the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure, materially changes the policy conversation heading into September. A 0.5% monthly increase in the trimmed mean, against forecasts of just 0.3%, is the kind of number that makes it very difficult for the RBA to wave through as noise
Australian monthly CPI (July 2026) 3.5 % y/y (vs. 3.2% expected)
July 2026 inflation data from Australia. Background this here, preview. Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.5%expected 3.2%, prior 3.8%1% (MoM) expected 0.8%, prior -0.1%Core inflation, the Trimmed Mean CPI 3.6% (YoY) expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% Trimmed Mean 0.5% (MoM) expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%I'll have more to come on this sep
PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7829 (vs. estimate at 6.7166)
The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.PBOC injected 239.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at 1.40%, unchanged This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Preview, today: Fed's favoured inflation gauge lands two days before Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
Today's PCE print carries added weight given its timing, landing just two days ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote and before Nvidia's earnings, making this a genuinely stacked stretch for US macro risk. A softer than expected core reading would likely reinforce the case for continued rate cuts and co
Japan's services inflation accelerates to 3.6pct in July, beating forecasts
The upside surprise adds another data point to the case for a near term BOJ hike, arriving alongside already sharply shifted economist expectations for a September move to 1.25%. With core consumer inflation also accelerating on the back of a weak yen and elevated import costs tied to the Iran conflict, the breadth of
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7166 – Reuters estimate
The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trad
Preview: Nvidia reports Q2 results today, guidance implies revenue near $91 billion
With consensus sitting less than one percent above Nvidia's own guidance midpoint, the setup leaves little room for a clean beat to move the stock on its own, the market reaction is more likely to hinge on the Q3 outlook, gross margin trajectory and any colour on Blackwell Ultra execution than on the headline Q2 number
US weighs further trade escalation after Canada sets retaliatory tariffs
An escalation of the US Canada trade dispute adds a fresh source of policy uncertainty at a moment when markets are already digesting a volatile Fed rate outlook and unresolved Middle East risk. Canada remains one of the largest US trading partners, so further tariff action carries meaningful cross border supply chain
Japan July 2026 Services PPI +3.6% y/y (expected 3.2%, prior 3.2%)
Japan July 2026 Services PPI +3.6% y/y expected 3.2%, prior 3.2%And +0.4% m/mprior -0.4%Just the data this post. ADDED - details and BoJ implications here:Japan's services inflation accelerates to 3.6pct in July, beating forecasts This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Four regional Fed banks sought discount rate hike ahead of July FOMC hold
The minutes reveal a hawkish contingent one bank larger than the public FOMC vote suggested, since Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid does not hold a policy vote this year and his view would not otherwise have been visible. That reinforces the picture from the FOMC minutes themselves, that support for tightening ext
Fed's Barkin says rising US debt will eventually lead to a reckoning
Barkin's comments add a senior Fed voice to a debate that has already unsettled bond markets this month, following the sharp Treasury sell off that forced an extraordinary buyback intervention and pushed long dated yields to multi decade highs. While he stopped short of predicting a near term crisis, his direct warning
BOJ seen hiking to 1.25pct in September as yen weakness accelerates timeline
The sharp shift in economist expectations points to a BOJ that is now genuinely behind the curve on tightening, with the terminal rate view moving higher and the timeline compressing in the space of a single month. For yen crosses, this raises the stakes around the September meeting considerably, since a hike is now la
Axios reports - Rubio tells allies US shifting from strikes to sanctions on Iran
A message that Washington is pausing major combat operations against Iran, if true, removes one of the more acute tail risks that had been supporting a geopolitical premium in crude. Combined with reports that naval mine clearance has reopened most of the Strait of Hormuz and that tanker traffic through the southern la
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